The Value of Peter Bourjos - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

The Value of Peter Bourjos

Posted on July 26, 2012 at 10:54 AM.

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Major League Baseball�s best story of 2012 has been the rise of Mike Trout. Trout has not only propelled the Los Angeles Angels into playoff contention, he is in the midst of having the greatest rookie season ever. No player has ever put up the numbers that the 20 year old has compiled so far. Trout�s rise has resulted in the benching of Peter Bourjos, the Angels 25 year old center fielder who played well in his 143 games last season as a rookie starter. Bourjos does not have the ceiling that Trout has so the Angels made the correct move in playing Trout. But, the result is Bourjos sitting and wasting away on the Angels bench save for being the late inning defensive replacement. With rumors circulating of the Angels looking to acquire pitching help, Bourjos would benefit from being included in the deal.

Peter Bourjos isn�t an offensive star. He won�t ever be a .300 hitter. Despite his speed, he won�t ever be a leadoff hitter because of his lack of plate discipline. Barring a change of approach, Bourjos is likely a .260/.320/.420 hitter. His power could develop into 15 to 20 home runs and he could steal 20 to 30 bases. Those aren�t superstar statistics. But, they are better than most centerfielders give. This year, 10 teams are currently fielding center fielders with on base percentages below .320. 16 teams have center fielders who are slugging less than .410. Offensively, Bourjos can be an average to slightly above average center fielder.

In the Minor Leagues, Bourjos stole 141 bases and was thrown out 41 times. Last season, at the Major League level, he stole 22 bases, but was thrown out nine times. This season, 13 teams have more than 20 stolen bases from their center fielders. While he must improve his rate, as a base runner, he is an above average center fielder.

But, neither offense nor base runner are Bourjos� main skills. First and foremost, Bourjos is an elite defensive center fielder. Using any metric, Bourjos is one of the handful of the game�s elite fielders. During his rookie season, he posted a UZR of 7.5. He ranked fifth amongst all Major League center fielders. His DRS (defensive runs saved) of 12 was fourth best in the Major Leagues. This season, in a smaller sample size, Bourjos UZR of 12.1 would lead all of Baseball if he had played the minimum number of innings to qualify as a leader. His DRS of 10 would rank second in baseball.

Defense isn�t a skill that gets appreciated by fans or even most analysts. When discussing Bourjos, most will point to his high strikeout total and his lack of walks in both his Minor and Major League career. But, he is an average hitter and does have some strong offensive skills. His 11 triples led the league last season. He did post a .167 ISO last season, which was 10th best among center fielders. In advanced metrics such as wOBA and wRC+, he was in the top 12. He isn�t a defense-only player. But, those skills plus elite defensive skills make him a much more valuable player.

By WAR standards, Bourjos� 4.3 WAR was 8th among center fielders last year. That mark was better than Josh Hamilton, BJ Upton, Adam Jones, Austin Jackson, Melky Cabrera, and Austin Jackson. While he isn�t close to being the player that Josh Hamilton is, the fact is that his defensive skills make him one of the more valuable center fielders in the game. This season, in just limited duty, Bourjos has a 1.4 WAR. Consider that Curtis Granderson�s WAR is just 1.7, Bryce Harper is also at 1.7, and that BJ Upton is just 1.0, and it is easy to see just how valuable his defense is.

Bourjos� name has come up in trade rumors a few times this season. The latest rumor is that he will be a centerpiece in a trade for Rays starting pitcher James Shields. While the Rays are in severe need of offense, Bourjos skills are a perfect fit for the Rays. His acquisition would allow the Rays to part ways with center fielder BJ Upton whose defense has regressed to below average. As talented as Upton is, his offensive statistics are actually worse than Bourjos�. Yet, a team will likely give up more to acquire Upton than the Angels will get for Bourjos. Pair Bourjos with left fielder Desmond Jennings and the Rays will have two of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Their pitching staff will benefit greatly from the upgrade in defense. The Rays are a team that struggles to score runs and has to focus on run prevention just as much as adding offense. Adding Peter Bourjos would help on both counts.

In fact, any team adding Bourjos would be improved. The Angels would even benefit from keep Bourjos. Torii Hunter is set to be a free agent at the end of the season. Bourjos should be starting for them with Trout and Trumbo flanking him. Although Mike Trumbo is not a defensive outfielder, the Angels can live with him in right field if Trout and Bourjos are starting in the other spots. But, the Angels still have Vernon Wells on their payroll. Their payroll obligations may force them to make the decision to part ways with Bourjos and give the veteran Wells the starting the job.

Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen are rightly portrayed as the best center fielders in the game. They are complete packages. But, they aren�t the norm. Baseball is not in the golden age of center fielders. Most teams aren�t getting the production that the Angels and Pirates are receiving. More importantly, most teams aren�t getting elite level defense either. The offensive landscape of Major League Baseball is changing. Players are no longer hitting .330 with 40 home runs. Someone like Peter Bourjos would�ve been ignored a decade ago. He isn�t a star. He likely won�t develop into a star. But, in the age of run prevention, he has quite a bit of value.